Change happens quickly, and we may be seeing that play out before the end of this week.
The Thursday evening/Friday system I discussed in the blog Monday is showing more signs of the northward track.
That suggests a rain changing to snow scenario for most of the viewing area between midday Thursday and wee hours of Friday morning.
Not buying it all the way yet, need to see some of the other simulations (ECMWF) before being convinced. The NAM (below) has been suggesting the system would effect us directly for the last couple of days.
But the NAM is notoriously poor at predicting precipitation patterns beyond 60 hours in advance. That is has not changed dramatically in the last few runs is surprising.
The GFS (below), which has been much closer to the ECMWF in keeping the system to our south through these last few days, has made a substantial shift northward in the track… much closer to the NAM.
If the ECMWF jumps toward the GFS solution, which we will find out overnight, a plowable snow goes from a middling chance to likely.
How much? Again, still very speculative, but both of these above simulations suggest a general 3-6 inches of snow accumulating from around 2pm Thursday to 2am Friday.
To reiterate, more data needs to come in overnight, so follow it closely with us in the next 24 hours, as the forecast may get a big swing.
Update. 8:30am Wednesday
The overnight ECMWF has broken toward the other two solutions. Not exactly in line with the NAM and GFS, but a move in that direction. New suite of computer simulations comes in between 9am and 2pm (first the NAM, then the GFS, then the ECMWF). Once those come in, we will have to make some type of call.
But colleagues at the National Weather Service in Blacksburg have already put up a Winter Storm Watch for areas immediately north and west of Lynchburg City.