Monday Afternoon Update on the March 6 Storm

Most of the numerical simulations are tightening up the gradient in snowfall from north to south across the viewing area.  It is not difficult to make an argument that Southside Virginia gets nothing… and that Greater Lynchburg only gets about an inch.

A review of the international guidance this afternoon does give me pause.  For the first time (late this afternoon), I am having serious thoughts that this thing could be a dud south of US460.  I am not there yet, but I am becoming more concerned that this thing underperforms for Greater Lynchburg.  I am far less worried that it surprises us with 8+ inches.

Also of note, what does come down will be a heavy, wet snow.  And there will be some gusty breezes during this storm, especially along the Blue Ridge Parkway.  Places that do have more than a couple of inches of snow have the potential for power outages Wednesday night and Thursday, as those breezes will not really back off until Thursday evening.

This evening’s computer simulations will be very telling… if we need to hold the line or back off of the snow forecast totals.  If you have been following the blog, you know we have been holding on to 3-6″ for Greater Lynchburg since Saturday.  For the moment, we are staying with it (I am stubborn to a fault), but stay up late… as there may be some changes in the forecast between 11pm and midnight.

To illustrate how much uncertainty there is, I have enclosed snowfall maps from three Virginia ABC affiliates.  You will notice big differences.

I often hear folks complain “those weather people don’t know what’s going to happen,” and that is true.  That knowledge is, of course, above my pay scale.

But some guesses are better than others.  Here is a sample:


Our forecast at WSET in Lynchburg


From our colleagues at the ABC Affiliate in Richmond, WRIC


And from my other favorite ABC13, WVEC in Hampton Roads

But the one thing everyone is in agreement on is the timing.   Everything is over by Wednesday night, with the exception of Hampton Roads, when the precipitation ends by daybreak Thursday (and they have a larger wind issue).

About seansublette

Meteorologist at Climate Central. Broadcast meteorologist in Virginia from 1995 to 2015. Born and raised in Richmond, VA. Penn State alumnus. Loves baseball and the rock band Rush. Views are independent of my employer. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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