Have taken a quick look at the morning American guidance. Not very pleased with it, but I do not think it can be entirely discounted. In addition to the precise track of the surface low and the location of any deformation zone (intense precipitation zone), my main concern with the system is the temperature of the lower atmosphere and the temperature of the actual ground, especially given this system is expected to start as rain in the southern 2/3 of the state.
Early map is below. Will make revisions at this office this afternoon based on new information from the UK, CMC, and ECM guidance.
This keeps Greater Lynchburg in a 3-6″ area, but quickly ratchets upwards to 6-12″ north of the City Limits… with 12+ at Wintergreen and Afton mountain. Have Southside in a 1-3″ area, and a big difference across Metro Richmond. 4-6″ toward Goochland and Powhatan, more like 2-3″ toward Hopewell and New Kent.
This is lower than many other outlets, and I understand precipitation rates will be high on Wednesday morning, but compression and initial temperature concerns at this time have me on the lower end.
Again, and update will follow this evening.