Been watching the evening data come in (GFS and NAM), and now getting increasingly worried that this thing goes belly up south of US460. Not zero, but feel that it is time to pull back a little bit from the 3-6″ idea I have been holding on to since Friday.
Matt will have more data in the morning. He will make the decision as to whether or not to make this our official forecast Tuesday morning.
Quite frankly, I have very little confidence in what will happen here.
I know it will be bad in the Shenandoah Valley. Heavy wet snow of 12-15 inches up that way. Power outages to follow. Southside will get rain, possibly finishing as a period of snow that lasts a few hours, but does not really accumulate. It is the area in between that is the cause of the drama.
So, here’s my thinking at midnight. Again… official forecast comes from Matt on GMV.